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Residents of the Big Apple will learn who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who governs and defends the nation's largest city at a moment when the former president has threatened to send military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democratic figures against each other. The election has turned into an acrimonious showdown, marked by alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be critical to the direction that the party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with Americans' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

However, should Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of considered, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the city has drawn an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate directly. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent elected, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in truth, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in recent days, after video emerged suggesting him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd