A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
