Conflict-ravaged Burma Goes to the Polls in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process widely dismissed as a sham, with key opposition groups banned, many of their leaders jailed and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Staggered Vote Amid War

The military government is conducting a phased ballot nearly five years after it seized power in a coup, which sparked widespread opposition and spiralled into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the military regime, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and entrench its power as it seeks a way out of the devastating stalemate.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the rights of freedom of expression, association or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk stated.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for interfering with or criticising the polls under a recently enacted legislation which carries harsh penalties, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures found guilty under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a seven-year jail term after criticising a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk said in a comment, pointing out that armed rebel groups have made warnings urging people to shun the polls.

The military has been engaged on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own forces. It ceded territory of vast areas of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year after sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the coming weeks in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the rest deemed not secure enough. Outcomes are expected by late January.

There is not expected to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it difficult to predict a possible turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while another 51 parties and independent candidates will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's key leaders have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while others are in hiding abroad.

International Condemnation

"By splitting the vote into stages, the authorities can adjust tactics if the results in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the UK and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a pretence, while regional bloc Asean has called for negotiations to come before any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed criticism of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a multi-party democratic system".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the people of this country. It is not being held for the outside world," a junta spokesman told a news conference last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are turning their back on "progress toward democracy".